Joao Pinto, the captain of Porto’s European Cup-winning side in 1987, infamously said: “I only make predictions after the game.”
The powers of computational analysis have been significantly developed in the subsequent decades – although, a prediction in May would still be slightly more accurate.
While Pinto has ten months to mull over his best guess, less patient spectators can turn to Opta‘s fearsome supercomputer. The sports statistics giant has run 10,000 simulations of the entire fixture list for the coming campaign, where each team’s strength is calculated as a mix of betting market odds and a hierarchical Elo-based rating system.
Here’s how the 2023/24 Premier League season is expected to shake out.
Supercomputer predicts 2023/24 Premier League table
| Predicted position | Team | Predicted points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 88.81 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 72.23 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 71.47 |
| 4 | Man Utd | 68.49 |
| 5 | Newcastle | 61.23 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 58.90 |
| 7 | Brighton | 57.51 |
| 8 | Tottenham | 56.20 |
| 9 | Aston Villa | 55.38 |
| 10 | Brentford | 53.20 |
| 11 | West Ham | 51.45 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 47.40 |
| 13 | Fulham | 46.18 |
| 14 | Wolves | 43.45 |
| 15 | Burnley | 39.39 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 39.34 |
| 17 | Everton | 39.14 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 36.52 |
| 19 | Sheffield United | 36.26 |
| 20 | Luton Town | 34.19 |
Data via Opta, correct as of 8 August 2023
After becoming the second English men’s side ever to win the European Treble, and just the tenth in history, Manchester City are unsurprisingly ranked as favourites to retain their domestic crown.
However, the crushing scale of their status as the team to beat is eye-catching. According to Opta’s calculations, City have a 90.2% chance of winning the Premier League. This comfortably makes the English top flight the most one-sided division among Europe’s elite.
For comparison, Bayern Munich have a 69.3% chance of winning a 12th consecutive Bundesliga crown, Paris Saint-Germain win Ligue 1 in 57.3% of Opta’s simulations while Real Madrid (48.4%) and Inter (43.6%) are marginal favourites in Spain and Italy respectively.
Arsenal may have led the Premier League for 248 days last season but only have a 4.1% chance of ending the final Sunday above City and everyone else in 2024. In fact, Arsenal are more than twice as likely to finish fifth (9.0%) as they are to top the table.
Liverpool (3.5%) and Manchester United (1.7%) are the only other clubs with more than a fractional chance of lifting the league title. Although, all of Newcastle United, Chelsea, Brighton, Tottenham Hotspur, Aston Villa and Brentford won the league in at least one of Opta’s 10,000 simulations.
At the other end of the table, the supercomputer hasn’t been too adventurous with its candidates for relegation. Championship play-off final winners Luton Town are heavy favourites to prop up the division next May. In the Hatters’ first top-flight campaign since 1992, Luton have a 62.3% chance of dropping back down in to the Championship.
Fellow second-tier escapees Sheffield United also have the spectre of demotion hanging over them. Bournemouth have been tethered with a comparative relegation probability to the Blades (49%) despite securing survival with two games to spare last term.
The Cherries, perhaps aware of the doom-laden statistics waiting in the chamber, replaced manager Gary O’Neil with the highly rated Andoni Iraola during the off-season. Iraola defied the odds to channel the chaos of Rayo Vallecano in to consecutive top-12 La Liga finishes before swapping Spain for the south coast this summer.
Bournemouth systematically called out every pundit that predicted their relegation once safety was confirmed last season in an uncompromising video across their social media channels. Let the record show that Opta’s supercomputer – rather than this writer – has the Cherries down in 18th by the end of 2023/24.
Championship champions Burnley are expected to finish in a lofty 15th place. Vincent Kompany’s Clarets are relegated in a third of Opta’s simulations but Nottingham Forest, Everton and the aforementioned trio are all more likely to go down.