Premier League dominance and England’s low xG: Comparative analysis of Euros and Copa América

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The recently concluded Euro and Copa America tournaments provided a fascinating glimpse into the goal-scoring prowess of players from various leagues and clubs across Europe.

The study, by the football results website and sports data experts from Flashscore, analysed the distribution of goals across leagues and clubs, expected goals (xG), average attendance and other stats to further gain insights into the current state of global football and the relative strengths of various competitions.

Analysis of expected goals (xG)

Despite progressing to the knockout stages, England’s performance in terms of expected goals (xG) was underwhelming. In the group stage, England averaged only 0.78 xG per game, placing them among the lowest in the tournament, ahead of only Scotland, Albania, and Serbia. Throughout the entire tournament, England’s xG remained modest, with an average of 0.93 xG per game, the lowest among teams that reached the last 8. This showcases that England struggled to create many goal-scoring opportunities, relying instead on clinical finishing and defensive stability to advance.

Scotland had the poorest xG performance in the group stage, averaging just 0.40 xG per game. This was the lowest among all participating teams, reflecting their significant difficulties in creating goal-scoring chances.

France, despite scoring only 4 goals, was the third-best team in terms of total xG (9.2) during the entire tournament. Germany had the highest average xG (2.00) across the tournament, boosted by a particularly strong performance against Scotland (2.28 xG).

Argentina demonstrated superior offensive prowess in the Copa America compared to Spain in the Euros, despite playing one fewer match. The South American champions generated an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 12.96, surpassing Spain’s 12.79.

Spain’s Euro 2024 performance was marked by exceptional efficiency in front of goal. La Roja netted 15 times, surpassing their xG tally of 12.79 by a significant margin. This goal haul set a new record for the most goals scored by a single team in a European Championship tournament.

Croatia, with an average xG of 1.99, did not make it past the group stage, underscoring the unpredictability of tournament outcomes despite strong statistical performances.

During the quarter-finals, the winners were outperformed in xG by their opponents, highlighting the importance of converting chances efficiently.

xG Euro – the group stage

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xG Copa America – the group stage

https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeQqh5VXniO-of4H_F3arGrmVh5Dv0EPRF21qRA0laVJesrFC9l96bz9H60KSydzloFKUmIuVobMUBaq_rcGXdt2hJ7h4kIOdZSw-m0PVMMyv4PcXf7y6hHPXNWxWRI3L80fXHRXKGACj92CkWJrl4LhQIm?key=CWc3MyLKx3OVvV-ghNTmMA

Goals distribution

The Euro 2024 tournament saw a total of 117 goals scored across 51 matches, resulting in an average of 2.29 goals per game. This goal-scoring rate slightly exceeded that of Copa America 2024, where 70 goals were netted in 32 matches, averaging 2.19 goals per game.

The top five European leagues (Bundesliga, Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1) accounted for 79 out of 117 goals in Euro 2024. In Copa America, these same leagues contributed 37 out of 70 goals, showcasing their global influence.

The Premier League’s players demonstrated their diversity by contributing 16 goals at the Euros and 18 goals at the Copa America, totalling 34 goals (most) across the two tournaments. The Premier League’s combined goal tally surpassed that of any other league, further cementing its status as one of the best leagues in the world. 

Euro – goals distribution per league

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*Top 8 highest selected

In Euro 2024, the Bundesliga emerged as the clear leader, contributing 24 goals. This was followed by the Premier League with 17 goals, and Serie A and La Liga tied at 15 goals each.

Copa America – goals distribution per league

https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc2LM5YJO8bCSZIyW8GbuBtx5Hs_WQeAACzehTQpy6ES_rbYUg4hjmubebXN0s0ymfqTZrEdW-30d-0zINP_fD9bLcKw7AujdiQmlhicmfwA2nVydVEVGy6wqcIJWUFLOPn-KvjvscLxO6cuvQExrm1iTw?key=CWc3MyLKx3OVvV-ghNTmMA  

*Top 8 highest selected

Interestingly, for Copa America 2024, the Premier League took centre stage with 18 goals, beating Euro 2024. This underscores the Premier League’s global influence and the quality of its South American talent. Liga MX Clausura followed with 10 goals, highlighting the strength of Mexican football in the Americas.

Both tournaments saw goals from a wide array of leagues, reflecting the inclusive nature of modern football. However, Euro 2024 had a slightly more concentrated distribution among top leagues with unexpected contributions from competitions like the Czech Fortuna Liga (5 goals) and even the Saudi Professional League (3 goals).

Copa America 2024 reflected the diverse nature of South American football, with goals coming from leagues across the Americas, including MLS (3 goals), Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A (3 goals), and various other South and Central American leagues.

In Euros, traditional European powerhouses dominated. Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund, and Real Madrid led with 6 goals each. There was room for Bologna (3 goals), who had an impressive Serie A season which saw them return to the Champions League after a 60-year wait.

https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXftOYVgM0s4z8Q_kW6h62g7Pz-p9lsG0hDIgxsSLPdCSHqs_2ZY3UZ-LeKvRyMpz8BpKEJF6vMsVX1mscwolRa-f10IDEwKmYKb2izzIj0BjEdysZMpdAVEmynGe0nUx1xppTCPq5SrKVyCfgGGbmtHGaMQ?key=CWc3MyLKx3OVvV-ghNTmMA

 *Top 10 highest selected

These patterns also demonstrate the complex web of talent flow in modern football, with South American players making significant impacts in European leagues while also shining for their national teams. As football continues to evolve, these international tournaments serve as fascinating barometers of footballing trends and talent distribution.

https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc9IPM_Oihysv21piiQOLRD4aYmLtq1o54QaOBZ8kwrBjD7Emyr5Wr6RuVhsFPC_oqZsw_I6CgacbSS_F97a50l8tFoI0rjyX9SXnkF2-XQ27JXUPZ1_Li617SCgB7PXjxGEmbrXLpZM1kkEg8uEQ9F5HpN?key=CWc3MyLKx3OVvV-ghNTmMA

 *Top 10 highest selected

Average attendance

The Euros drew a total of 2,662,088 spectators across its venues, significantly outpacing Copa America in the USA, which attracted 1,547,492 fans.

This substantial difference of over 1.1 million match attendees highlights the larger scale of the European championship, likely due to factors such as a greater number of participating teams, matches, and generally larger stadium capacities in Europe.

The larger number of teams participating in Euro 2024 (24 compared to Copa America’s typical 12 or 16) naturally leads to more matches and higher total attendance, even if individual match attendance is similar.

While the total attendance shows a clear advantage for Euro 2024, the average attendance figures tell a more nuanced story:

Euro 2024: 52,590 avg. per match

Copa America 2024: 49,919 avg. per match

The relatively small difference of 2,671 spectators per match indicates that both tournaments were similarly successful in filling their stadiums and attracting fans.

However, the slightly higher average attendance for Euro 2024 might reflect the generally higher economic power of European football fans, potentially allowing for more expensive tickets and greater travel capabilities.

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