Russia has warned that it will boost its forces in the Baltic region, including with nuclear missiles, if Finland and Sweden join Nato.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former president, said today that Nato membership for the two Nordic countries would pose a direct threat to Russia’s security. He suggested that Moscow would respond with deployments of nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad, its Baltic territory, which is wedged between Poland and Lithuania, both Nato members.
“The land borders of the alliance with the Russian Federation will more than double,” Medvedev, who is the deputy head of Russia’s national security council, said. “In this event, there can be no talk of the nuclear-free status of the Baltic [region], the balance must be restored.”
He also said that Moscow would “significantly” strengthen its naval forces in the Gulf of Finland.
“Until today, Russia has not taken such measures and was not going to,” Medvedev, 56, said. “If our hand is forced, well . . . take note it was not us who proposed this.”
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, declined to comment on the deployment of nuclear weapons to the Baltic region. “This will be considered at a separate meeting with the president,” he said.
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Sweden and Finland held neutral status throughout the Cold War, but Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine has triggered a spike in support for joining Nato. Both countries face Russia across the Baltic Sea and Finland shares an 830-mile land border with it. They could join Nato as early as summer, officials say.
The idea of a nuclear weapon-free zone in the Baltic states has been proposed for decades as a de-escalatory measure between Russia and the Western alliance. In theory it bans the deployment of any warheads in Kaliningrad, as well as at Nato bases in Germany. Kaliningrad, which was known as Königsberg until 1946, was annexed by the Kremlin from Germany at the end of the Second World War.
Medvedev’s comments came after video footage appeared to show Russian military hardware moving towards the Finnish border in a show of strength.
President Putin put Russia’s nuclear force on high alert in February, just days after ordering troops into Ukraine. He has also warned western countries not to get involved in the conflict in Ukraine or face “consequences they have never seen”.
Russia is believed to have already moved nuclear weapons to Kaliningrad. In 2018 Vladimir Shamanov, a senior Russian MP, said that Moscow had deployed nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to the region. He did not say how many or for how long, however. The Kremlin had said that previous deployments of Iskanders to Kaliningrad were temporary and a response to the United States building up its forces in the Baltic region.
The Iskander is a mobile ballistic missile system that is codenamed SS-26 Stone by Nato. It replaced the Soviet Scud missile. Its two guided missiles have a range of around 300 miles and can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads.
Ingrida Simonyte, Lithuania’s prime minister, dismissed Moscow’s threats. “Kaliningrad is a very militarised zone and has been for many years,” she said. “This is nothing new. Nuclear weapons have always been kept in Kaliningrad. The international community, the countries in the region, are perfectly aware of this. They use it as a threat.”
Ahead of his invasion of Ukraine, Putin, 69, demanded that Nato withdraw its forces from central and eastern Europe and pledge to ceases its expansion toward Russia’s borders. Nato membership for Finland and Sweden would represent a “massive strategic blunder” by the Kremlin, a senior American official said recently.
Finland took its first step towards Nato membership yesterday, with Sweden expected to follow suit in reaction to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In other developments:
• The flagship of Russia’s navy in the Black Sea was confirmed to be seriously damaged after Ukraine claimed to have struck it with missiles.
• A United Nations task force has warned that the conflict could devastate the economies of developing nations facing even higher food and energy costs.
• The Pentagon hosted the CEOs of the US military’s eight largest contractors to discuss how to arm Ukraine faster.
• Kyiv has denied Russia’s claim that more than 1,000 Ukrainian marines surrendered in the besieged port city of Mariupol.
• Marine Le Pen, France’s far-right presidential candidate, warned against sending any more weapons to Ukraine.
Yesterday the Finnish government began consulting parliament on how it might join Nato, and Sanna Marin, the prime minister, said a decision could be made “within weeks, not within months”. Sweden is reportedly set to consider the measure in June.
If both countries join it would potentially put Nato forces barely a hundred miles from St Petersburg.
Putin raised his country’s nuclear alert level in the early days of the war as an apparent threat to Nato countries after Britain, Germany and others announced military aid for Ukraine alongside punishing sanctions on Russia. The order means Russia’s nuclear arsenal, the largest in the world, should be prepared to fire under the direction of the president. It was condemned as “unacceptable” by the United States and Nato.
Now in its 50th day, the conflict continues to see heavy bombardments of targets in eastern Ukraine and a long-running battle for control of Mariupol, the besieged port city.
In London, the Ministry of Defence said comments by Putin on Tuesday highlighted “his continued interest in the Donbas where Russia is striking Ukrainian forces in preparation for a renewed offensive”.
The MoD said the eastern towns of Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka are likely to be Russian targets for similar levels of “indiscriminate” bombardment seen in other urban areas.
“The combination of widespread missile and artillery strikes and efforts to concentrate forces for an offensive represents a reversion to traditional Russian military doctrine,” it added. “However, this will require significant force levels. Ukraine’s continued defence of Mariupol is currently tying down significant numbers of Russian troops and equipment.”
A Ukrainian presidential adviser said Ukraine would attack Russia if Moscow targeted Kyiv. “Ukraine will strike back if Moscow hits Kyiv. We have excellent opportunities in Russia,” Alexei Arestovich said.
The US is said to be considering whether to send a high-level official to Ukraine in a display of support for the country amid Russia’s invasion.
A final decision on who will visit Kyiv has not been made, according to the Politico website, but President Biden and Kamala Harris, the vice-president, are unlikely to be considered because of the enormous costs of ensuring their safety in a warzone.
It is far more likely a cabinet member such as Antony Blinken, the secretary of state, or Lloyd Austin, the defence secretary, will be sent to meet President Zelensky, US officials said.
Both Biden and Harris have visited neighbouring Poland since the outbreak of the war in February. Any US visit to Ukraine would follow a series of similar trips from European leaders.
Boris Johnson made a clandestine visit to the Ukrainian capital over the weekend and was pictured walking through the streets of Kyiv alongside Zelensky.
The leaders of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland met Zelensky yesterday.
He said those leaders “have helped us from the first day, those who did not hesitate to give us weapons, those who did not doubt whether to impose sanctions”.
If the Biden administration does send someone to Kyiv, it would not be announced in advance because of security reasons, according to Politico, but a visit was not certain due to the fast-changing nature of the conflict.
Biden further affirmed the US support for Ukraine with $800 million in military assistance, which was announced yesterday.
The delivery expanded the scope of the equipment already sent to Ukraine and included heavy artillery, with a wider Russian assault expected in the east of the country.
Zelensky said he was “sincerely thankful” for the aid and that in a telephone call with Biden they discussed the new weapons shipment, even tougher sanctions against Russia and efforts to bring to justice any Russian soldiers who committed war crimes in Ukraine.
Zelensky also said work was continuing to clear tens of thousands of unexploded shells, mines and trip wires that were left behind in northern Ukraine by the retreating Russians.
He urged those returning to their homes in those towns to be wary of any unfamiliar object and report it to the police.