Voter apathy is expected to be one of the challenges for the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) in the December 7 elections, the latest poll by Global InfoAnalytics has suggested.
The poll released last Tuesday sampled 8,206 voters in 111 constituencies in all the 16 regions.
It revealed that 16 per cent of voters who say they will not vote have pledged allegiance to the NPP, with three per cent of this group identifying with the NDC.
It said 38 per cent indicated floating status, four per cent belonged to other parties, and 39 per cent declined to reveal their party affiliations, while 4.4 per cent respondents said they would not vote in the election.
“Crucial in winning the December elections will be which of the presidential candidates receives greater support in his base, as well as winning the votes of floating (independent) voters,” it said.
The poll suggested that while the governing NPP presidential candidate and Vice-President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), receives 88 per cent support of his base, the presidential candidate of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), former President John Dramani Mahama (JDM), attracts 96 per cent.
“Among the floating voters, JDM leads DMB with 54 per cent to 23 per cent, a 31 (percentage) points advantage. JDM also has 18 (percentage) points lead among voters who refused to disclose their party affiliations,” the poll further revealed.
Poll result deviates significantly from various others publicised recently, which put Dr Bawumia either in the lead or at par with his main contender.
It, however, shows a marginal improvement for the NPP candidate as compared to previous polls by the same research organisation, which had put Dr Bawumia at just above 36 per cent, while Mr Mahama also drops from over 53 per cent.
The beneficiary of the lost grounds by the leading candidates, according to the poll, is Nana Kwame Bediako (NKB), leader of the New Force Movement and an Independent presidential candidate, who is projected to get 6.2 per cent.
“The race is unlikely to go into a run-off as the year average of the poll shows JDM on 53 per cent, DMB on 36 per cent, Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen (AKK) on seven per cent, Bediako on three per cent, and others on one per cent,” the executive summary of the poll said.
First-time voters
The poll also shows that among first-time voters, Mr Mahama now leads with 46 per cent, with Dr Bawumia on 38 per cent.
It said the two leading presidential candidates, Mr Mahama and Dr Bawumia, were tied on 41 per cent in July 2024 poll among first-time voters.
The others are AKK on five per cent; NKB on 10 per cent, and others on one per cent.
Regional basis
The poll added that Mr Mahama now leads in 12 regions, up by one compared to the July poll.
The regions that Mr Mahama leads are Greater Accra, Central, Western, Western North, Bono, Bono East, Northern, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Oti and Volta, while Dr Bawumia leads in the Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo and North East regions.
It said the ruling party is struggling to achieve its target of 85 per cent in the Ashanti Region, as Nana Bediako surges.
Dr Bawumia remains on 66 per cent, Mr Mahama on 22 per cent, Mr Kyerematen on four per cent, and Nana Bediako on seven per cent, and all others on one per cent.
In the Eastern Region, Nana Bediako and Mr Kyerematen are also surging, as the duo now share 19 per cent of the votes, Dr Bawumia is on 42 per cent, Mr Mahama on 36 per cent, and others on two per cent.
The economy, jobs and education remain the top issues for voters, according to the poll, as 70 per cent of respondents cited the economy as important, followed by jobs cited by 62 per cent respondents, and education as cited by 48 per cent respondents.
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