The Institute of Research Innovation & Development at Kumasi Technical University, in its latest poll, has disclosed that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia stands a greater chance of winning the upcoming New Patriotic Party (NPP) flagbearer race as he will most likely secure an overwhelming victory in eight regions.
Ahead of the NPP’s presidential primaries on Saturday, November 4, many researchers have tipped Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as leading the race, with Assin Central MP Kennedy Agyapong being his closest contender.
The latest to conduct a poll on the upcoming election is the Institute of Research Innovation & Development at Kumasi Technical University.
The Director of the Institute, who is the lead researcher for the poll, Professor Smart Sarpong, in an interview with Citi News, disclosed that 15,595 NPP delegates were engaged.
He noted that the key components considered among the four aspirants were who is the most unifying, who has the most visible leadership qualities, who is most likely to break the “8,” as well as non-policy factors such as religion and ethnicity were taken into account.
Prof. Smart Sarpong disclosed that 71.1% of the respondents said Dr. Bawumia has a higher chance of breaking the “8,” while 26.8% of them stated that Kennedy Agyapong stands a better chance of breaking the “8.” 1.8% and 0.3% chose Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto and Mr. Addai Nimo, respectively.
69.9% also described Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the most unifying, whereas 19.4% said Kennedy Agyapong is the most unifying. In terms of being the most unifying, Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto had 8.5%, while Francis Addai Nimo had 2.2%.
In terms of being the aspirant with the most visible leadership qualities, 70.5% of the delegates engaged chose Dr. Bawumia, and 19.4% mentioned Mr. Kennedy Agyapong. 8.1% and 2.0% of the delegates chose Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto and Addai Nimo, respectively.
With respect to how religion or ethnocentrism can influence the choice of vote, 13.4% said religion would be taken into consideration, while 86.4% said they would not consider religion. 13.8% of the delegates said they would strongly consider ethnicity, while 86.2% said they would not consider one’s ethnic background before voting for them. 97.1% noted they would take into account the past record of each person before voting for them, while 2.9% said that factor would not be considered.
Out of the 16 regions and the one national headquarters, Prof. Smart Sarpong revealed that Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has a commanding lead in eight (8) regions with an average of 81.9%.
“Out of these 17 clusters (the 16 regions and the NPP national headquarters), I see 8 of the clusters being already decided. The Vice President has taken a very good lead. Those regions include; North East, Northern region, Upper East and Upper West, Ashanti, Bono, Eastern, and Volta.”
Prof. Smart Sarpong further noted that their research predicts that the election would be open in five regions, as none of the aspirants has a clear lead.
He, however, noted that the work the aspirants put in a few days before the election could change the dynamics.
“It is 50/50 for any aspirant who works extra harder. Those 5 regions include the Western region, Savannah region, Bono East region, the party headquarters, and Western North.”
The research also showed that Mr. Kennedy Agyapong could have a clear lead in four other regions if he works harder, as he is leading with an average of 49.6%.
“The following regions have the potential of going for Hon. Ken Ohene Agyapong. They are likely going to go for him. It doesn’t mean he should go to sleep on them. He should try and consolidate whatever gains he has in these four regions. So, Hon. Ken and the team, Oti region, Greater Accra region, Central region, and Ahafo region.”
Reacting to the latest poll, the spokesperson of the Kennedy Agyapong campaign team in the Ashanti region, William Kusi, insists that despite the research stating that their candidate is not strong enough in the Ashanti region, their own poll states otherwise.
“Our candidate, for instance, has combed the whole country, and we as a campaign team have also done a lot of work, especially in the Ashanti region. We have heard of the sponsored polls that have come out and are giving Dr. Bawumia the lead, but we disagree because on the ground, we are far ahead.
For instance, our internal polls suggest that we are going to have 75-80 percent support in the Ashanti region. So, when I heard of the polls from the one who always fails, Ben Ephson, for instance, I was like, what is happening? Smart Sarpong at the regional level did so well with his polls. It was accurate, but he is getting it wrong this time,” he said.