The Director of the Faculty of Academic Affairs and Research at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC) says ECOWAS’ military intervention in Niger will not happen.
Professor Kwesi Aning’s stance still holds despite the heads of forces of some member states announcing their readiness to strike after a meeting in Accra.
According to him, the intervention will not happen because the bloc itself is facing credibility challenges and, therefore, would need to reverse its steps to regain “parts of its credibility.”
“Let me repeat it; the attack will not happen. You know yourself the number of times I’ve predicted coup d’états that have come through. So this is about forecasting and risk analysis and risk assessment.
“The intervention will not happen because ECOWAS needs to reverse or retract its steps to get parts of its credibility back,” he told Newsfile host, Samson Lardy Anyenini.
The expert indicated that the military regime in Niger started signalling their willingness to negotiate but “because of the tendency that our elders don’t make mistakes and they don’t apologise,” ECOWAS seems to be having difficulty reversing its decision.
Meanwhile, according to reports, the media in Niger is filled with discussions about Burkina Faso, Mali and Senegal possibly supporting Niger with ammunition in response to ECOWAS’ force strikes.
Prof. Aning said it is a necessary response on the back of the announcement of ECOWAS’ resolve to carry out its intervention, adding that one would try to make preparations when they perceive that they may be attacked.
After a week’s ultimatum given to the leaders of the coup in Niger to get back to constitutional rule, commanders of the various forces of the ECOWAS’ member states converged at Accra to deliberate on their intervention plan.
The meeting, however, did not see the attendance of Mali, Senegal and Burkina Faso as they have declared support for Niger and have criticised ECOWAS’ approach.
Experts have also expressed their disapproval of the approach and have lamented that the bloc has not exhausted all available options before resorting to a military intervention, which was to be the last.
According to the announcement made by the commanders after their meeting in Accra, there will be no further meeting before their possible strike in Niger.
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