The International Monetary Fund expects revenue to underperform the Ghana Government target by 0.1% of Gross Domestic Product in 2024, while expenditure overshoots the target by a similar margin.
The Fund is forecasting a budget deficit of 5.0% for Ghana in 2024, compared to the government’s target of 4.8%.
Seemingly, this aligns with Ghana’s election-year fiscal performance.
According to IC Research, it appears the IMF has taken a slightly conservative posture with a 0.2% of Gross Domestic Product slippage baked into its 2024 deficit forecast of 5.0% compared to the government target of 4.8%.
“Seemingly aligning with Ghana’s election year fiscal performance, it appears the IMF has taken a slightly conservative posture with a 0.2% of GDP slippage baked into its 2024 deficit forecast (5.0%) compared to the authorities’ target (4.8%). This forecast showed that the Fund expects revenue to underperform the authorities’ target by 0.1% of GDP while expenditure overshoots the target by a similar margin”.
Meanwhile, the research organisation says improving external position will cap foreign swings, but external debt restructuring is key.
Encouragingly, it pointed out that the updated external sector framework showed a marginally improved outlook on the Balance of Payment (BOP) gap despite maintaining a pre-restructuring assumption on external interest payments.
At the programme commencement in May 2023, the IMF’s initial forecast on the cumulative BOP financing gap from 2023 – 2026 showed a gross funding need of $15.1 billionn.
However, we note a $300.0 million reduction in the cumulative BOP funding gap to $14.8 billion in the updated framework as fiscal adjustment continues to correct the macroeconomic imbalances, pending external debt operations.
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