The President of the Association of Ghana Industries (AGI) has warned about the economic implications of the recently announced 10% tariff on Ghanaian cocoa exports to the United States.
Dr. Humphrey Ayim-Darke stressed that the Finance Minister must act decisively to avert a fiscal crisis.
Speaking on PM Express Business Edition on Joy News, he was candid about the stakes.
“The Finance Minister knows that if he doesn’t get it right, you’ll have a tough time balancing his books, getting his revenue, getting domestic revenue, which is largely based upon imports,” he said. “Government has a big concern to put its head on the line to make sure it gets some certainty in the cocoa market and the export space.”
The U.S. tariff, announced by President Joe Biden, has cast uncertainty over one of Ghana’s key export commodities, with ripple effects threatening everything from government revenue to foreign exchange stability and inflation.
Although the U.S. has temporarily paused the implementation of the tariff for 90 days, Dr. Ayim-Darke said the delay only buys Ghana time to consult and respond strategically.
“It is still an unfolding event, we are studying it and the dynamism it comes with. But for the 90-day pause, we would have been in a higher anxiety,” he noted. “For now, we are taking the opportunity to consult, engaging government and our counterparts. Look at the regional block.”
He called for a collective national approach, emphasizing that this is not the time for solo moves or public grandstanding.
“We don’t have to be issuing statements that may bring ripples into the system… It will be useful if the country does some form of collective engagement.”
Dr. Ayim-Darke warned that the Finance Ministry must account for the deep interconnections between cocoa exports, import-based revenue, and Ghana’s overall fiscal health.
“If you look into the domestic revenue mobilisation, about 50 plus percent — just about 50 — comes from the ports, and these are largely imports. And then from export as well, which includes cocoa,” he explained.
“Unfortunately, we know we had a cocoa drop by virtue of the events of the galamsey and the cocoa export.”
He painted a grim picture of the potential knock-on effects if government revenue takes a hit.
“It has a ripple effect on the macro… If you’re not getting enough domestic build, you slap more monetary policies on us. It will trigger the policy rate, lending rates. The cycle continues, and it has a consequential effect on the US Dollar as well, which is our medium of trading.”
Even more troubling, he added, is the risk of inflation in the U.S. affecting Ghana’s remittance flows.
“Remittances have become part of our inflows. If the inflationary rate hits the U.S. by virtue of the tariffs and chocolate prices going up, and the consumers’ disposable income is reduced… how much remittance will come to your family? That will affect government, too.”
Dr. Ayim-Darke also raised questions about the disparity in tariffs between Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire — Ghana faces a 10% tariff, while Côte d’Ivoire is hit with 14%. He cautioned against complacency.
“We are also concerned about the disparity between the tariff on Ghana and Ivory Coast, where we are together seeking to harmonise our total cocoa export and the benefits to the farmers. Today you are happy, the next time, it will all catch up with you.”
In his view, the problem cannot be treated in isolation. “You cannot look at this in isolation… We need to be concerned with looking at the macro picture and the micro picture.”
As the 90-day countdown begins, the AGI President insists the time for strategic action is now. The decisions made — or missed — in the coming weeks could shape Ghana’s economic outlook for years, he said.