Ghana’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth outturn in 2023 could be higher than the 1.5% envisaged under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme, GCB Capital has stated.
It said notwithstanding the frontloaded fiscal adjustments and weaknesses in the industrial sector, GDP growth averaged 3.25% in the first half of 2023, supported by the ongoing steady improvement in high-frequency indicators of economic activity.
“While we expect growth performance in second-half of 2023 to be tamer amidst the limited policy support, the GDP growth outturn at 2023 could be higher than the 1.5% envisaged under the IMF programme”.
Again, it said it expect the disinflation run to continue through the fourth quarter of 2023 despite the upside risks to inflation from petroleum prices and the quarterly tariff adjustments.
Therefore, the monetary policy stance could remain neutral through the fourth quarter of 2023 and potentially pivot in the first quarter of 2024 once inflation recedes sufficiently.
This outcome, GCB Capital, said should support growth through the credit channel in the second year of the IMF programme.
Economy grew by 3.2% in second quarter of 2023
Ghana’s provisional overall real GDP grew expanded by 3.2% in 2023. The provisional non-oil real GDP also increased by 3.2% in the quarter.
The services sector remained the main driver of growth in the second quarter, recording a growth rate of 6.3% by the agriculture sector with a growth rate of 6%.
The information and communication, health & social work, public administration, defence and social security, transport and storage, and education sub-sectors of the services sector and the fishing, livestock and crops sub-sectors of the agriculture sector were among the main growth drivers.
However, the industrial sector remains in recession, contracting for the third consecutive quarter in the second quarter of 2023.
The construction, manufacturing, water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation industry sub-sectors have contracted over the three quarters.