Fitch Solutions has revised Ghana’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2024 to 4.3%, from the previous 3.8%.
The London-based firm is also forecasting an expansion of the Ghanaian economy by 4.5% in 2025.
It attributes its revision of Ghana’s growth rate to stronger than anticipated increase in economic activities for the next two quarters of 2024.
“We believe that economic growth over the coming quarters will remain markedly stronger compared to the last two years.”
“While inflation remained sticky in Q1 [quarter one] 2024, averaging 24.2%, we expect that it will trend downward and reach 19.5% by the end of the year, primarily facilitated by statistical base effects. Slowing inflation, combined with stronger government spending ahead of the December general elections, will support consumer activity and boost domestic demand”, it added.
Meanwhile, Fitch Solutions expects that fixed investment will continue to recover in 2024.
“While interest rates remain elevated as a result of the Bank of Ghana’s 2021-2023 hiking cycle (the central bank hiked by a cumulative 1,550 basis points since mid-2021), we expect that an improvement in business confidence will result in stronger corporate investment”, it pointed out.
On June 18, 2024, the Ghana Statistical Service published quarter one 2024 data, showing that real economic growth accelerated to 4.7% year-on-year, from 3.8% in quarter 4 2023—marking the fastest expansion in over two years.
The acceleration was primarily driven by solid growth of 6.8% in the industrial sector buoyed by increased output in mining & quarrying and oil & gas operations.
From an expenditure perspective, economic growth was primarily driven by a 13.8% expansion in fixed investment and healthy growth of 11.2% in private consumption.
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