Mikel Arteta is a manager with a reputation for meticulously exploiting the finest margins – but now Arsenal’s season threatens to flounder because he left the most vital commodity of all to chance.
Arsenal’s FA Cup third-round exit to Manchester United on penalties was the painful sequel to Tuesday’s damaging 2-0 home defeat by Newcastle United in the Carabao Cup semi-final first leg.
So many of Arsenal’s problems, and why they trail Premier League pacesetters Liverpool by six points having played a game more, result from Arteta and the club’s transfer strategy.
Arteta’s acquisitions have reduced the Gunners to a blunt instrument when a lack of cutting edge was their biggest, most obvious weakness.
There are a variety of responses, cynical or otherwise, that could be given to Arteta’s claim that “from 1,000 games like this you should lose one. Unfortunately it was this one. You [Arsenal] deserve to win the game by a mile but the reality is we are out and that is the only thing that’s going to be judged”.
The simple answer is that Arsenal have been a team without a recognised striker for some time, something Arteta has declined to address, choosing instead to strengthen other areas rather than their most pressing, obvious need.
And now, as they go out of the FA Cup at the first hurdle, face an uphill fight to reach Wembley in the Carabao Cup and struggle to keep up with Liverpool in the title race, Arteta and Arsenal’s failure to sign a goalscorer has been exposed.
Study the statistics from those past two defeats and the problem is writ large. In capital letters.
They had 23 shots with only three on target against Newcastle, and 26 with seven on target against Manchester United in 120 minutes. Of those 26, 22 came from inside the box – Arsenal having 55 touches in Manchester United’s penalty area.
For all that, the only goal, in both of these games, came from defender Gabriel’s deflected shot.
To underscore Arsenal’s lack of potency, this came against a Manchester United team who played the last 29 minutes of normal time plus 30 minutes of extra time with only ten men after defender Diogo Dalot was sent off for receiving a second yellow card.
Arsenal’s flaw was evident last season, but the chance to attempt to cure the problem was missed in the summer transfer window.
RB Leipzig’s Benjamin Sesko was touted as a top target with a £55m release clause, while the prolific Viktor Gyokeres from Sporting was another name in the frame.
Instead, Arteta set about strengthening Arsenal’s defence by signing Italy international Riccardo Calafiori from Bologna in a deal that could be worth up to £42m, then adding Real Sociedad midfielder Mikel Merino, not a natural creator, for £32.6m.
The only attacking addition looked very much like a deadline day impulse purchase when Raheem Sterling, ruthlessly marginalised by manager Enzo Maresca at Chelsea, joined Arsenal on loan in the closing minutes of the summer transfer window. He has played 12 games, scoring one goal, and struggled to make any impact.
Kai Havertz has been used as a striker but this is not his natural role. He has become something of a poster boy for Arsenal’s failings, missing glaring chances against Newcastle and Manchester United. The German even missed the pivotal penalty in the shootout.
He had five shots inside the Manchester United box and 11 touches. An attempted header in front of an open goal in the dying moments against Newcastle on Tuesday, a chance to make a dent in that 2-0 deficit, flew wide off his shoulder.
And now, with Arteta leaving the door left open to the fates, they have stepped straight through with lengthy injury absences for Bukayo Saka and his 17-year-old deputy Ethan Nwaneri.
And to make matters worse Gabriel Jesus, by no means prolific but at least more of a natural fit through the central areas, was taken off on a stretcher in the first half against Manchester United.
Arteta admitted afterwards: “It’s a big worry. He was in quite a lot of pain and had to come off on a stretcher. The worrying factor is the feeling he had when he had to come off.”
Arsenal’s attacking name has been made more on set-pieces this season, with coach Nicolas Jover even getting his own mural outside Emirates Stadium. Twenty of Arsenal’s 62 goals in all competitions, 32%, have come from set-pieces, including penalties. The mural was Jover’s reward.
Arteta was stating the obvious when he said after the FA Cup exit: “There’s an element about not putting the ball in the back of the net.”
He added: “The ball has to go in the net then you have to batter the opponent. That’s the reality.”
Former Arsenal and England forward Theo Walcott told BBC Sport: “It’s like everyone else has said before. Arsenal need a striker at this time because it would have been a completely different story.
“Arsenal have gone from being a free-flowing forward line, exciting the crowd, to going a bit stale at Emirates Stadium. You need players to do something differently and they haven’t got that at the moment.”
And Micah Richards told Match of the Day: “The difference between Arsenal winning the league or winning these ties is just a centre-forward.”
Arteta and Arsenal’s need is even more urgent following his pessimistic bulletin on Jesus, but solutions are looking hard to find in January.
Not only did Arsenal fail to push the button on a move for Sesko but he has since signed a five-year contract at RB Leipzig, while Gyokeres will be on the radar of Europe’s elite should he come on the market. His former Sporting coach Ruben Amorim would certainly be keen to be reunited with him at Old Trafford.
Alexander Isak, who showed his brilliance by tormenting Arsenal on Tuesday and scoring a goal at the Emirates, is a complete non-starter. He is now worth vastly more than the £60m that brought him from Real Sociedad in August 2022. Take that fee, Newcastle fans would insist, and double it.
Arteta may point out that Arsenal’s Premier League goal tally of 39 is only eight behind Liverpool. It is the same as Chelsea’s, while only Tottenham stand between themselves and Arne Slot’s league leaders with 42.
This is, though, as Arsenal discovered when they came up short against Manchester City in the Premier League in the past two seasons, a pursuit of trophies built on the finest margins, as Arteta and his team are painfully discovering to their cost.