The 10% US tariffs imposed on Ghana are expected to pose a low risk to the country’s trade surplus, according to IC Insights.
“In the first nine months of 2025, we think the tariff impact could be partly mitigated by the duty-free export of non-oil goods to the US market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which will expire in September 2025,” the firm noted in its Global Trade Tremors analysis.
However, it pointed out that only about 26.0% of Ghana’s export value to the US is covered under AGOA, while the majority of exports consist of primary commodities, which accounted for 85.1% of total exports in 2024.
As a result, IC Insights foresees a potential increase in risk to Ghana’s trade surplus, ranging between low and moderate, particularly as Ghanaian authorities work to revive cocoa and crude oil production.
It also warned that a likely softening of demand in key export markets could weigh on Ghana’s trade balance.
Ghana’s top five export destinations in 2024 were the United Arab Emirates (20.4%), Switzerland (20.2%), South Africa (12.2%), China (7.3%), and India (6.7%). These five markets accounted for two-thirds of Ghana’s total export revenue.
IC Insights emphasized that strong and sustained demand conditions in these economies are crucial to maintaining Ghana’s robust trade surplus, which stood at 6.0% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024.
“Our review of the US reciprocal tariff structure indicates significant trade barriers against Ghana’s key export markets, which could weaken investment and aggregate demand in these economies. Specifically, China’s exports to the US will attract a 54.0% tariff, while Switzerland (and other EU markets) will face a 20.0% tariff,” the report added.