Chief Executive of Delax Finance, Joe Jackson, and Senior Country Partner of PwC Ghana, Vish Ashiagbor, have cautioned that Ghana could fail to pass the fourth International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme review due in April 2025.
Their warning follows Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson’s revelation that Ghana missed most of the key performance indicators under the IMF programme for the period ending December 2024.
Speaking on PM Express Business Edition with host George Wiafe on March 14, 2025, the financial experts noted that unless Ghana secures a waiver from the IMF, the country is unlikely to pass the review.
Background
Presenting the 2025 Budget to Parliament, Dr. Forson admitted that Ghana had likely missed key reform commitments required for the upcoming IMF review.
“All structural benchmarks due by end-December 2024 are likely missed, suggesting a comprehensive failure to meet reform commitments,” he stated.
He further disclosed that Ghana’s end-of-year inflation target was missed, with inflation reaching 23.8% in December 2024—far exceeding the budget target of 15% and the IMF central target of 18%.
“This has triggered discussions with the IMF under the Monetary Policy Consultation clause,” Dr. Forson added.
The Finance Minister also highlighted a major fiscal slippage, noting that the primary balance—a key fiscal anchor of the IMF programme—deteriorated from a deficit of 0.2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2023 to a deficit of 3.9% in 2024.
“This represents a massive deviation of 4.4 percentage points from the targeted surplus of 0.5% of GDP, undermining confidence in Ghana’s fiscal management at a critical juncture,” he noted.
Implications
Commenting on the issue, Vish Ashiagbor warned that if the situation is not managed properly, it could have severe consequences for the Ghanaian cedi.
“We already understand that investors have started responding negatively to the not-so-good fiscal data from 2024,” he said.
He urged the government to take immediate steps to address concerns and explore innovative ways to stabilize the economy.
Joe Jackson, on his part, stressed the need for the government to consider an extension of the IMF programme.
“It is clear that we cannot meet these key targets, and the necessary steps should be taken now to start discussions on extending the programme with the IMF,” he stated.