Global InfoAnalytics has predicted victory for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate in the presidential race, John Dramani Mahama.
The research firm released its latest prediction, barely 8 days to the December 7 general elections.
The poll projects the former president to secure 52.2% of the vote, ahead of the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) candidate and Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, who is expected to garner 41.4%.
The prediction also estimates 2.5% of votes for Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, 3.0% for Nana Kwame Bediako, and 0.9% for other candidates. This analysis has a margin of error of ±1.8%, with voter turnout projected at 77.6%.
In terms of regional dynamics, Mr Mahama is predicted to win in 10 regions, including Greater Accra, Central, Volta, and Northern regions.
Dr Bawumia is expected to claim victories in Ashanti, Eastern, Ahafo, and North East regions, among others.
The NDC is also forecasted to take the lead in the parliamentary elections, with an estimated 150 seats. The NPP is expected to win 99 seats, while one seat is likely to go to an independent candidate. However, 29 constituencies remain too close to call.
This projection underscores a shift in parliamentary representation, with the NDC potentially consolidating gains in stronghold areas while contesting NPP-dominated regions.
The report highlights critical trends shaping voter preferences, including economic concerns, job creation, and public service delivery.
It also stressed on the role of regional strongholds in determining the overall election outcome.
The predictions reflect a base-case scenario but include worse- and best-case models, where Mahama’s support could range from 50.4% to 54.1%, depending on final voter turnout and undecided voters.
This survey comes not long after a similar research released on Thursday, 21 November 2024, by Professor Smart Sarpong, an Associate Professor of Statistics at the Kumasi Technical University, put Dr Bawumia ahead with 49.1% of popular support in the election.
Dr Bawumia’s closest rival, John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC), had 45.8% of the vote in that survey, while Nana Kwame Bediako of the New Force is to secure a little over 2%, with Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen of the Movement for Change predicted to place 4th, securing just 1.2%.