Professor questions ‘statistically flawed’ EC decision to declare election without Techiman South votes

A university professor who wants his name withheld has punched holes into the statistics that informed Electoral Commission Chairperson, Jean Mensa’s decision to declare Nana Akufo-Addo the winner of the December 7 presidential election without Techiman South votes.

The EC Chair, on Wednesday afternoon, declared the NPP candidate the victor in the 2020 presidential election without the Techiman South component of votes.

The EC, in going ahead to declare the results said: The difference between the total number of votes between the first and second candidates is 515,524.

As a result, even if we added the 128,018 to the results of the 2nd candidate, it would not change the outcome of the Presidential Election.

But, the professor has contested the above claims of the EC, using eight possible scenarios that could have sent the elections into a run-off if the votes of Techiman constituents were factored into consideration.

Below is the professor’s detailed analysis of the situation as sent by him to adomonline.com:

What the EC Chairperson said:

“Currently the election results we have declared exclude that of the Techiman South Constituency, with a voter population of 1 hundred and 28 thousand and 18 (128,018). The said election results are not ready because they are being contested.

As such collation is not complete.

The difference between the total number of votes between the first and second candidates is 515,524.”

“As a result, even if we added the 1 hundred and 28 thousand and 18 (128,018) to the results of the 2nd candidate, it would not change the outcome of the Presidential Election.

Hence our declaration of the 2020 results without that of Techiman South”.

Let us interrogate this:

Current situation

Assuming 100% turnout at the Techiman south and adding this to the total and then adding all of the Techiman south votes to Mahama

Assuming 80% turnout at the Techiman south and adding this to the total and then adding all of the Techiman south votes to Mahama

Assuming 70% turnout at the Techiman south and adding this to the total and then adding all of the Techiman south votes to Mahama

Assuming 60% turnout at the Techiman south and adding this to the total and then adding all of the Techiman south votes to Mahama

Assuming 50% turnout at the Techiman south and adding this to the total and then adding all of the Techiman south votes to Mahama

Assuming 40% turnout at the Techiman south and adding this to the total and then adding all of the Techiman south votes to Mahama

Assuming 30% turnout at the Techiman south and adding this to the total and then adding all of the Techiman south votes to Mahama.

Assuming 20% turnout at the Techiman south and adding this to the total and then adding all of the Techiman south votes to Mahama

From the analysis the only time the EC’s assumption can be true is if the voter turnout is 20% and all the votes from the 20% turnout is given to Mahama.

There may be other scenarios where the votes are split in several ways. However, what I have done is just to interrogate the EC’s statement based on their own assumption.