Quiet manoeuvres in the vast voter enclave of the Ashanti Region have set the tone for a potential long drawn battle as Ghana’s two main political parties battle it out for a chunk of what is available in the 2024 general election.
The governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) will unveil a campaign team for the region this weekend, while the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) says its strategy for the region is under wraps, setting the stage for the upcoming shadow boxing for votes in the NPP’s backyard.
This is the stronghold of the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) where the party has always secured 70 per cent of the votes since 2000. The remainder is left for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and the combined effort of all other minority parties sharing the votes in the region.
The NPP and the opposition NDC are locked in a fierce contest for votes, each seeking to tip the scales in its favour. In the 2020 elections, the NPP solidified its grip on the region, securing 1,795,824 votes, representing 74.14 per cent of the votes, while the NDC garnered 653,149 votes, representing 26.08 per cent of the votes, leaving the two parties separated by 1,142,675 votes.
This was a notable improvement for the NDC from its 2016 performance, where the party garnered 23.03 per cent of the votes. Data analysis shows that anytime the NPP is able to cross the 75 per cent votes in Ashanti Region, it wins the national election.
The NDC, which has alternated occupancy of the nation’s seat of government with the NPP in all of the 32 years of the Fourth Republic, comes to the table with a core support base that has remained faithful over the years.
It is that group of voters that the NPP targets, as the party’s presumptive vice-presidential candidate, Dr Matthew Opoku Prempeh, stated at his unveiling in Kumasi on July 9, this year.
Ambitious target
The NPP’s running mate made the clarion call to supporters to deliver 85 per cent of the votes in the region to the party in December during his July 9 unveiling in his constituency. The party itself has been more modest, setting its sights on securing 80 per cent of the votes in the region to cement its dominance.
The NPP’s ambitious target is driven by its desire to “break the eight”, a reference to the two-term ruling cycles the NPP and the NDC have enjoyed in the Fourth Republic. The NPP’s dominance in the region is rooted in its historical legacy and cultural affinity.
The National Organiser of the party, Henry Nana Boakye, aka Nana B, told the Daily Graphic that: “We are unveiling a campaign team for the region on August 4, to prosecute our campaign for the region and to ensure that we achieve the 80 per cent or higher votes from the region”.
Achieving the audacious target requires marshalling all arsenal, including human, financial and logistical resources, to douse the possibility of voter apathy among a population that fetches the party its biggest votes in national polls.
The region is crucial for both the NPP and the NDC due to its large electorate and historical voting patterns. The main opposition party, the NDC, is hoping to peel off some of the NPP’s support by building on its growing momentum, aiming to achieve 30 per cent or more of the votes in the region.
General Secretary of the party, Fifi Fiavi Kwetey, also told the Daily Graphic that he was hoping that the party’s plans for the region would help the opposition party to achieve the 30 per cent it had set for the region.
He, however, declined to mention the party’s strategies for the region. “We have a laser focused eye on the Ashanti Region and will deploy all available resources to ensure that we achieve the 30 per cent votes or more from the region,” he said.
For the NDC, a shift in voter sentiments can potentially boost the party’s chances in the region.
Political scientists
But political scientists say if the NDC can build on its past results and exceed 30 per cent of the votes in Ashanti Region all things being equal, it could boost the party’s chances of regaining power, while an 80 per cent or more votes in Ashanti Region for the NPP could keep the ruling party in the Jubilee House.
But the analysts say emerging factors such as the economy, infrastructure development, corruption and unemployment may influence voter decisions.
A Senior Lecturer at the Political Science Department of the University of Ghana, Dr Kwame Asah Asante, said the selection of Dr Opoku Prempeh would ginger the party support base, but might not necessarily translate into a huge voter turnout on December 7.
He said the selection of Dr Opoku Prempeh as the running mate added little to the ticket, although the people would like to associate and relate to him as one of their own.
“People in the region will vote based on what the flag bearers bring on board, as well as their personalities,” he said, adding that “Dr Prempeh is just an addition to the ticket.”
Critical factors
Dr Asah Asante, who is also the Dean of the European Union Studies at the University of Ghana, said other critical factors that would play in the minds of voters were the current state of the economy, infrastructural development, fight against corruption and the management of the rising unemployment in the country.
The Provost of the College of Humanities and Social Sciences of the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Professor Charles Ofosu Marfo, however, said he expected the NPP to make electoral gains with the selection of Dr Prempeh as the running mate of the party.
“Even in times when the presidential candidate or his running mate did not hail from the region, the party records major gains, how much more with the selection of Dr Opoku Prempeh, an indigene and someone who belongs to the royal family of the land, as the running mate,” he said.
He said the influence of ethnicity on national election could not be downplayed. He, however, cautioned that emerging factors that define the electorate’s choices may include unfulfilled promises and the current state of the economy as the voter becomes more sophisticated.
The emergence of Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen on the lonely path of an Independent candidate touting a slogan that seeks to challenge the NPP, a party he had for long nurtured the ambition to lead to the polls, has, however, added a new dimension to the campaign front ahead of the December 7 polls.
Indeed, Mr Kyerematen had always shared a common political ideology, orientation and ambition with the NPP until he pulled away in September last year to prosecute the Yellow Butterfly agenda he has christened Movement for Change.
With young businessman, Nana Kwame Bediako, aka Cheddar, adding to the mix of Election 2024 prospective presidential candidates, also on an Independent ticket, Ashanti gains even more relevance in the contest.
Both Mr Kyerematen and Mr Bediako have their roots in Ashanti, which has remained kind to the NPP over the years, establishing itself as perhaps the soul of the party. With its large electorate and historical voting patterns, the outcome of the votes in Ashanti Region will be decisive.
As the campaign heats up, one thing is clear: how well the parties perform in the region could impact their overall chances in the national polls.
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